Coal phase-out: population decline in rural areas

The population in the rural areas of the Central German and Lusatian lignite mining regions could shrink significantly by 2038. This is according to a new analysis by the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR), which was published on Wednesday.

The regions in the Central German mining area between Leipzig, Halle and the surrounding districts are developing unevenly. While Leipzig stands out with significant gains, many rural areas are still under pressure. However, targeted investments could slow down the decline and even trigger growth in some areas, the report continued.

Multiple forecast models calculated

"The success of structural change in the mining areas will largely determine whether the regions shrink or remain stable until 2038," said the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR). In addition to the 2045 regional planning forecast, it has calculated two variants of the population forecast that include structural change measures through the Coal Regions Investment Act.

An optimistic scenario up to 2038 is calculated, as well as one in which measures such as investments in research, economic relocations and infrastructure expansion only have a limited effect.

Some figures on population development in the regions

The Lusatian mining district, which covers parts of southern Brandenburg and Saxony, will shrink by around 72,000 inhabitants according to a forecast variant for 2038 of 1,127,247 inhabitants. This represents a decrease of 6.4 percent. By comparison, a decline of 9.3 percent was calculated in the more pessimistic scenario. The Central German region will therefore shrink by 2.0 or 3.8 percent.