Pupil numbers will decline in Saxony from 2027

The number of pupils in Saxony will only continue to rise until 2027, according to forecasts by the Conference of Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs. According to the data published at the weekend, the actual figure for 2023 is 520,349 pupils. The maximum figure of 534,270 is expected to be reached in 2027. After that, the trend is downwards. The forecast for 2030 is 522,520, then 459,980 for 2040.

Saxony is in line with the eastern German trend

Saxony is therefore in line with the eastern German trend. In the western German states, the peak will not be reached until 2032. In the eastern German states, there will be a decline of 16 percent in 2040 compared to 2024. Nevertheless, the number of pupils nationwide will remain at a high level even after 2032. "In 15 years' time, there will still be more children and young people in the education system than there are today," it said.

The states are to use the calculations to plan school construction, staffing requirements and individual support measures, among other things.
According to the forecasts of the Conference of Education Ministers, the number of pupils nationwide will increase from 11.2 million in 2024 to just under 11.8 million in 2032. This would mean around 24,000 additional classes or almost 1,200 new schools,

KMK President: The course must be set today

According to Left Party politician Simone Oldenburg, President of the Conference of Education Ministers and Education Minister of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the framework conditions must be designed in such a way that the system can meet the needs of higher pupil numbers. "Needs change - sometimes in elementary school, sometimes in secondary school. We need smart management and flexibility based on reliable data. We need to set the course today: with sufficient teaching staff, modern infrastructure and reliable digital equipment."

According to the KMK, the current development is determined by two opposing trends: On the one hand, the high level of immigration in recent years - primarily due to Russia's war against Ukraine - is having a significant impact. Around 230,000 pupils of Ukrainian origin are included in the forecast. On the other hand, the birth rate has fallen noticeably since 2022. These low birth cohorts will shape the education system in the coming decades and lead to a long-term decline in student numbers.