Forecast: up to 20 percent fewer pupils in Saxony by 2040

In the 2040/2041 school year, up to 20 percent fewer children and young people will be attending school in Saxony than today, according to a forecast. Instead of around 419,250, the State Statistical Office expects only 337,450 to 367,500 pupils, according to the latest regionalized forecast.

The trend is particularly clear at elementary school: 114,890 to 125,020 children are expected to study there - that would be up to a quarter fewer than now.

Pupil numbers to fall drastically from 2028

The numbers are expected to rise slightly to 418,600 to 428,900 pupils by the 2027/2028 school year and then fall sharply in the following years. The entire state is affected by this development, but regional differences are expected.

The decline will be smallest in the city and district of Leipzig, where 8.6 percent and 9.8 percent fewer pupils are expected respectively. The largest drop in numbers is expected in the Erzgebirgskreis district, where a decline of up to 28.1 percent is considered possible.

Clemens: "Saddest statistic in Saxony"

Minister of Education Conrad Clemens (CDU) described the forecast as the "saddest statistic in Saxony". "The decline in the birth rate is reaching the schools," he said in a statement. Clemens announced forward-looking action "so that the mistakes of the past are not repeated". This includes maintaining the school network with locations close to where people live and clever planning of teaching positions.

Among other things, too many lessons are still being missed as a result of excessive cost-cutting measures in previous years. "We still need new teachers - especially at secondary schools and in rural areas." In large cities, on the other hand, fewer primary school teachers will be needed in the foreseeable future. Clemens plans to present a new teacher requirement forecast in January.