Study: Saxony lacks tens of thousands of social housing units by 2035

Tens of thousands of social housing units could be lacking in Saxony by 2035. This is according to a study on social housing that was presented in Berlin this morning. The "Social Housing Monitor 2026", which was compiled by the Pestel Institute on behalf of the "Social Housing" alliance of associations, estimates that Saxony will need around 120,000 social housing units over the next nine years in order to achieve the minimum standard of 8.5 percent of all tenant households defined by the authors. According to the study, only Hamburg currently achieves this rate. In Saxony, it is one percent, one of the lowest figures in Germany.

According to the study, the Free State would have to increase its current social housing stock almost ninefold if the trend of recent years continues: The study shows around 13,800 social housing units for Saxony as of 2024; according to the calculations, around 120,000 will be needed by 2035. In recent years, an average of almost 1,400 social housing units have also disappeared from the market each year as social housing commitments expire.

11,100 new social housing units needed in Saxony each year

In concrete terms, according to the study, around 11,100 new social housing units would need to be added in Saxony each year. In fact, between one and three thousand have been created in recent years - even fewer in the coronavirus years. The Pestel Institute's calculations are based on data from the statistical offices. According to this, around 13 percent of people in Saxony are considered to be at risk of poverty. The state government also raised the income threshold for a so-called Wohnberechtigungsschein (WBS), which entitles the holder to rent social housing, at the turn of the year.

Housing shortage worsens nationwide

The study was commissioned by the Alliance for Social Housing, a coalition of the German Tenants' Association, IG BAU, the Society for Masonry and Housing Construction and other organizations. The alliance is calling for a federal-state pact, in particular for the construction of more social housing.

According to estimates by the Pestel Institute, the housing shortage in Germany will have reached a record level of 1.4 million missing homes nationwide by the end of 2024. According to the study, there is no improvement in sight in the coming years, as Pestel chief economist Matthias Günther said in Berlin. For the near future, the institute expects the construction of only around 200,000 new apartments per year, around half as many as the assumed annual demand. The Pestel Institute estimates total demand of up to 2.4 million new apartments by 2030.