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Ifo Dresden: War with Iran Hampers the Recovery of the Eastern German Economy

Ifo Dresden: War with Iran Hampers the Recovery of the Eastern German Economy
Rising energy prices are also having an impact on the East German economy. (File photo) / Photo: Jan Woitas/dpa
From: DieSachsen News
High energy prices, U.S. tariffs, structural change: Economists say the economic outlook is “not particularly rosy.” One industry in particular is being hit hard.

According to the Dresden-based Ifo Institute, the effects of the war in Iran are putting a damper on the East German economy. In their summer forecast, the researchers predict that the recovery will be noticeably slowed by rising energy prices. Economic output in eastern Germany is forecast to grow by 0.7 percent this year and by 0.8 percent next year.

“The outlook isn’t particularly rosy,” said Joachim Ragnitz, deputy director of the Ifo Institute in Dresden. According to the report, the strong positive effects of tax policy are offset by a negative environment characterized by U.S. tariffs, the war in Iran, and ongoing structural upheavals in the local economy. 

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Construction Industry Not Expected to Rebound Until 2027

The construction industry in eastern Germany is being hit particularly hard this year. There, the ifo Institute forecasts a 0.8 percent decline in economic output. However, by 2027, the effects of the tax measures are expected to become apparent with a 1.6 percent increase, pulling the industry out of its deep recession. For the rest of the manufacturing sector, the researchers predict growth of 1.0 percent for 2026 and 0.6 percent for 2027; for the service sector, they forecast growth of 0.7 percent for both years.

No relief is expected on the labor market: According to the forecast, the number of employed persons will decline by 0.4 percent this year. In addition, the population decline is leading to a tight labor supply. Due to rising consumer prices, private households are also experiencing a massive loss of purchasing power.

Federal Government Bears Responsibility

While there is a slight upturn, it is not the dynamic growth one would hope for, Ragnitz concluded. “It is the role of policymakers to ensure growth, if only to generate sufficient tax revenue and maintain the current level of prosperity.” Ragnitz sees the federal government as bearing the primary responsibility in this regard. The options available to state governments are limited.

Germany and Europe Well Below Global Levels

Last week, the Munich-based Ifo Institute raised its economic forecast for 2026 for the German economy as a whole. According to the forecast, gross domestic product could grow by 0.8 percent, instead of the previously estimated 0.6 percent. The Munich-based institute also forecasts growth of 0.8 percent for the coming year. However, both Germany and the eurozone still lag far behind the expected global economic growth of over two percent.

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