The Dresden-based political scientist Hans Vorländer sees the current INSA poll on the state election in Saxony as merely a snapshot. "Generally speaking, these are polls. They give a picture of the mood at the present time. They are not a forecast for the future election. That must be emphasized again and again," said the scientist in an interview with the Deutsche Presse-Agentur.
In the survey conducted by the Insa opinion research institute on behalf of the "Leipziger Volkszeitung", the "Sächsische Zeitung" and the Chemnitz "Freie Presse", the AfD is clearly ahead with 35 percent one year before the state election in Saxony. The CDU comes in at 29 percent. It is followed by the Left (9 percent), SPD (7 percent), Greens (6 percent) and FDP (5 percent). The current coalition of CDU, Greens and SPD would not have a majority.
The results would correlate strongly with the high level of dissatisfaction with the federal government and a majority dissatisfaction of people in Saxony with their state government, Vorländer said. They are dissatisfied with the performance of the government as a whole, he said. At the same time, he pointed to the high approval rating for CDU head of government Michael Kretschmer: "In an election, it always comes down to the top personnel. You could see that in all elections, including the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD was ahead of the CDU in the polls and in the end Reiner Haseloff made the race."
That there are conflicts within the Saxon government, Vorländer considers normal. With an eye on the upcoming elections next year, he says, the parties are concerned with raising their profiles. In any case, he said, forming a government after the state election in Saxony will be difficult because they are trying to do it against the AfD.
In the survey, a majority of respondents (53 percent) were dissatisfied with the work of the Saxon state government. Kretschmer did comparatively well, with him 51 percent satisfied, 13 percent even very satisfied. For the survey, 1500 eligible voters were interviewed by telephone in mid-August.
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