In recent years, summer has repeatedly shown its dry side. Low river levels and yellow meadows have become a common sight in many places during the summer. The heat is leaving a clear mark on Saxony and all of Europe. Researchers at the University of Leipzig have now identified key causes of the increasing drought.
A large part of the drying trend is linked to changing weather patterns. High-pressure systems are forming over Europe more frequently and lasting longer. They bring stable, dry, and hot weather, while rain-bearing low-pressure systems are becoming less common. According to the researchers’ calculations, these weather patterns account for about 55 percent of the increasing dryness in European summers.
The future remains uncertain
The researchers also found that the impact of climate change on soil moisture varies from year to year.
Summers become particularly dry when there is very little rain. Although it rains less frequently overall, when it does rain, large amounts of water often fall all at once. In years with more rainfall, this can partially offset soil drying.
According to lead author Dr. István Dunkl, it remains unclear whether drought conditions will increase or decrease in the future. The key factor is whether climate change is driving these shifting weather patterns or whether natural climate fluctuations are behind them.
Drought damage costs Europe an average of about nine billion euros annually. The findings are intended to help develop strategies for a drier Europe. Currently, the Leipzig researchers are also investigating how climate change influences the risk of wildfires. Among other things, they are examining the major fires in Spain and Portugal in the summer of 2025.
Original publication:
Dunkl, I., Bastos, A. & Sippel, S. European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s. Nat. Geosci. (2026).
