Did the Explosive-Carrying Drone Come from Moscow? Waiting for the Consequences

Who is responsible for the attempted attack involving an explosive-laden drone that was discovered on August 4 at Leipzig/Halle Airport near Ukrainian cargo planes? The federal government plans to provide details on this soon. Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) said as early as Thursday that the investigation was already “relatively far along” and that an appropriate response would follow shortly.

When asked about reports in Springer Media Group outlets suggesting that the government believes Russia is behind the incident, a government spokesperson said over the weekend: “The federal government does not engage in speculation. The only thing that matters is the official assessment that the federal government will make at its own discretion and after weighing all the results of the investigation.” 

“Welt am Sonntag,” “Politico,” and “Bild” reported, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter, that the government is preparing a comprehensive package of measures against Moscow. 

The mastermind is expected to be identified soon—Merz has announced a response

In a TV interview, Merz had said that the perpetrators would be “definitively identified in the coming days, and there will be a corresponding response very soon.” As early as Tuesday during the cabinet meeting, he had emphasized that those behind hybrid attacks would “pay for it.” 

Sources within the government indicated that, in such a serious case, the expulsion of one or two diplomats would not suffice. Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) stated that the government first intends to establish proof and then consider the consequences so that they can be implemented immediately. 

In addition to the expulsion of diplomats, it is also expected that the ambassador of the country from which the attempted attack was orchestrated will be summoned. 

Assassinations or attacks that, according to the German judiciary, were carried out on behalf of foreign states are rare in Germany. 

• The so-called Tiergarten murder in 2019 caused significant diplomatic tensions. At the time, Germany expelled two Russian diplomats. The convicted perpetrator was released in 2024 as part of a prisoner exchange between Russia, the U.S., Germany, and other countries and was personally greeted at the airport by Russian President Vladimir Putin. 
• In 1992, an attack was carried out against Kurdish politicians in exile at the Berlin restaurant “Mykonos.” The Berlin Regional Court determined that the attack had been carried out on behalf of the Iranian intelligence service.
• In 1986, an attack was carried out in West Berlin on the “La Belle” nightclub, which was popular among U.S. soldiers. Investigations revealed that the attack had been orchestrated by the Libyan intelligence service.

NATO consultations?

There has been much speculation in recent days about what other consequences might be possible beyond diplomacy—such as whether Germany could potentially invoke Article 4 of the NATO Treaty. This provision calls for consultations among allies if a NATO member state feels threatened from outside. 

If a Russian state actor were identified as the mastermind, it would also be conceivable to severely disrupt the so-called Russian shadow fleet. It consists of tankers and cargo ships that Russia uses to circumvent sanctions, for example in oil transport. Furthermore, it is increasingly being linked to acts of espionage and sabotage.

The Green Party, in particular, has recently called on multiple occasions for the closure of the Russian Cultural Institute in Berlin—also known as the Russian House.

Serious Attack

The drone, rigged with explosives, was discovered on the evening of August 4 in the airport’s security zone among Ukrainian cargo planes. The Federal Prosecutor’s Office described it as a “serious attack on Germany’s transportation and logistics infrastructure.” An investigation is underway on suspicion of attempted detonation of explosives and endangering air traffic. 

Russia is using the full spectrum of hybrid attacks

Both following the discovery of the drone laden with explosives and in connection with a weapons cache established in 2025 in a wooded area near Berlin, Dobrindt said that involvement by “foreign powers” could not be ruled out. The Federal Prosecutor General is investigating a suspect in connection with the weapons cache on suspicion of acting as an intelligence agent and preparing a serious act of violence that endangers the state. In other words: It is suspected that the two pistols and their ammunition were stashed there for possible assassinations. 

The suspect is currently in pretrial detention in Romania. Romanian media report that the young Ukrainian is also suspected of having, together with an accomplice and on behalf of Russia, mailed two packages containing incendiary devices via a courier service in Romania. 

Near-Crash in the Summer of 2024

In July 2024, an air cargo package caught fire at the DHL logistics center at Leipzig/Halle Airport. Security officials believe the package was planted on behalf of Russia. Germany likely narrowly avoided a plane crash at that time.

Since the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, German security authorities have observed an increase in cyberattacks and other acts of sabotage directed from Moscow. Espionage, disinformation campaigns, and other attempts to exert influence have also been observed more frequently.