Institute: Without Immigration, the East Faces a Loss of Prosperity

In eastern Germany, much depends on the prosperity of foreign workers; here is a construction site in Leipzig. (File photo) / Photo: Jan Woitas/dpa

Institute: Without Immigration, a Loss of Prosperity Looms

The study’s authors warn of the consequences of increased return migration to Poland and other predominantly Eastern European countries. “Substantial gaps in the labor markets” in eastern Germany could also arise in the coming years due to remigration. Therefore, immigration of workers from third countries must be increased—otherwise, “this could have a very negative impact on prosperity,” according to the IW.

Economic experts warn: “Consequently, the supply of goods and services to the population—for example, in the care sector—could also deteriorate.”

7,800 workers from EU countries lost

Since 2024, an increasing trend of remigration to the countries that joined the EU in 2004 has been observed—partly because the economic situation there has since improved. Eastern Germany had already lost 7,800 workers from those countries by last December, according to the institute, citing the Federal Employment Agency and its own calculations.

According to the IW, the share of non-German nationals in the workforce in eastern Germany rose from 4.8 percent in 2015 to 13.3 percent in 2025. At the end of last year, there were 845,000 foreign workers subject to social security contributions in eastern Germany; 16.2 percent of them were from Poland—the largest group—followed by 7.4 percent from Ukraine.

The eight main countries of origin outside Europe—Afghanistan, Eritrea, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, and Syria—account for 12.7 percent. “There has been a sharp decline in immigration from these countries over the past year,” according to the IW. Reasons: a stricter migration policy, but also the change in government in Syria.

Large Share of Value Added

The IW also examined who contributed how much to value added in eastern Germany. The result: For employees without German citizenship, the figure was approximately 68.3 billion euros in 2025 (10.5 percent of value added). This figure includes part-time employment. Accordingly, about two-thirds of this amount is attributable to employees who have arrived in the last ten years.

The institute went into greater detail in its comparison of the federal states, examining the share of total value added contributed by foreign workers who have arrived since 2015. The figures are 10.2 percent in Berlin, 7.1 percent in Brandenburg, 5.4 percent in Thuringia, 5.1 percent in Saxony, 4.9 percent in Saxony-Anhalt, and 4.4 percent in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania—and 6.9 percent for all of eastern Germany.

Institute: Without Immigration, the East Faces a Loss of Prosperity

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Institute: Without Immigration, a Loss of Prosperity Looms

7,800 workers from EU countries lost

Large Share of Value Added

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