Expert Sees No Threat to the Economy from the Heat

According to Joachim Ragnitz, an economic expert from Dresden, the rising temperatures do not pose a threat to the economy. “The effects are negligible,” said the deputy director of the Ifo Institute in Dresden. According to his explanation, the short-term effects on productivity do not result in a significant loss of value added but can be offset.

Study Finds 430 Million Euros in Losses Per Day of Heat

One figure recently caused a stir: According to a study by the consulting firm Prognos commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, a single day of extreme heat—that is, a day with a temperature of at least 30 degrees Celsius—costs the German economy around 431 million euros, with nearly 97 percent of that loss attributable to declining productivity. 

“That sounds like an insane amount at first,” said Ragnitz. But measured against the annual gross domestic product, that’s only 0.01 percent. Quantitatively, that’s not so alarming. “If you work more later on, you’ll make that up right away.” Even if there were ten heat days this year, that wouldn’t be a huge problem.

Long-Term Measures Make Sense

In the long run, Ragnitz considers occupational safety measures appropriate for adapting to rising temperatures—which is also the aim of the Prognos study. For office work, air conditioning is the method of choice; in industries such as road construction, work hours could be shifted, and—as in Spain—long lunch breaks could be taken, with employees starting earlier or finishing later instead.